Adam Saint – Gambling Man!

Well its probably been one of the worst England performance in a World Cup for quite some time. Maybe the worst. With so many quality players in our squad, to go out in the last 16, and in the manner we did, is nothing short of disgraceful. I hate to be one of the “i told you so” brigade, actually, no, i love it really! I think the writing was already on the wall a bit, and that was before the finals even started.

I think what is essential now is for a complete overhaul of the national team, on and off the pitch.

I don’t blame Capello fully. Look at his credentials, he hasn’t become a bad manager overnight. It’s about time the players started taking the blame. However the manager needs to realise that this current team is now over the hill. They may have wanted to win, but they didn’t want it enough. What I would like to see is Capello (providing he’s still here in the future) selecting young players who will run around and actually look half interested when they play for their country. After the last couple of weeks I don’t think the “experience” argument is valid anymore. This was meant to be our most experienced team we’ve taken to a cup in a while, and was on average more experienced than many of the “big guns” in the competition. What did it achieve though? F*ck all. Most of those players were not good enough in their prime and still not good enough now so why stick with them?

I believe that the main problems come from this current crop of senior players. It’s not down to the youth set-up, we reached the final of the European U21′s last time round and the U-17′s won their version. How many of our players actually finished the season in form? Rooney, and that was it. Rooney had a poor tournament, but can you blame him? He didn’t exactly have people around him who were giving him the ball and creating space.

One gripe I have about the set-up off the pitch though is this. Whose idea was it to offer Capello a new contract days before the finals began? Where is the sense in that? Say Capello had a poor tournament full of mistakes, tactical errors etc, they wouldn’t even be able to sack him without paying him off millions. Part of me thinks that’s why he did it, to give himself a little insurance. Mark Lawrensen made a very good point during the Germany game on Sunday. Why not give the manager a tournament by tournament contract based on performance? Or better still put them on a rolling contract?

Of course such things would require big changes at the top and for the FA bosses to actually use some common sense and make brave decisions. I won’t be holding my breath though!

Thanks for reading,
Adam.

It’s about time too! Liverpool have terminated their contract with Rafa Benitez by “mutual consent”. Does this mean he was sacked? Probably. Would they have had to have paid him off in order to get rid? Definitely. Of course whenever there is a high profile managerial casualty, there is talk of who is going to replace them before the dust has even settled (I’m also guilty of this!). I’ve had a scan about using Oddschecker and have found some interesting prices below:

Martin O’Neil – 11/4 @ skybet.
Roy Hodgson – 5/1 @ BlueSQ.
Kenny Dalglish – 7/2 @ bet365.
Guus Hiddink – 7/2 @ bet365.
Louis Van Haal – 25/1 @ PaddyPower.
Mark Hughes – 22/1 @ PaddyPower.
Frank Rijkaard – 28/1 @ PaddyPower.

The favourite appears to be Martin O’Neill. However in my opinion O’Neill has no reason to move on to Liverpool. He narrowly missed out on the league cup to Manchester United last term and has assembled a team that is capable of beating anyone on the day. I think he has a very good squad at Villa that he has built up himself, would he be willing to let that go? I think he’d be keen to have another go at the top 4 with Villa this coming season.

Dalglish seems to be a bit of a non starter to me. He’s currently coaching at the youth academy but it has been 10 years since he was last in charge of a 1st team. Is that a little too long out of the game?

Of these lot I’d say Hodgson would be favourite and 5/1 looks a steal! Linked with the job just weeks ago, and I think he’d jump at the chance of another season of European football. He’s a very experienced manager on the continent, and would be ideal for coaching in the Europa League again. I wouldn’t expect that much compo money would have to be forked out either.

I think I might have myself a flutter – Roy Hodgson to be the next Liverpool manager @ 5/1

Thanks for reading,
Adam

Ahhh, remember the days when Fabio Capello promised to pick the England National team on form rather than name? Well, he seems to have scored a bit of an own goal after today’s squad announcement. The latest lineup of players that is going to represent England dosen’t look very inspiring in any way, shape or form. I just do not see how this team is going to win the World Cup:

Goalkeepers
Robert Green
Joe Hart
David James

Well this dosen’t look very promising, or very fresh for that matter. With the exception of Hart, who I will admit has had a fantastic season this year for Birmingham. What I mean is, in the terms of Green and James, is that we have two goalkeepers that have backstopped their sides to 17th and 20th respectively in the Premier League this year. One dosen’t have to think hard to find a handful of howlers that “Calamity James” has made over his long, illustrious career.

Where was Paul Robinson in all of this?? I know he has had his fair share of dodgy moments in the past but this year he has been arguably the best English keeper playing regularly. Yet he doesn’t even get a shout for the initial 30 man squad. Surely he is more capable than Green or James?!

Defenders
Jamie Carragher
Ashley Cole
Rio Ferdinand
Glen Johnson
Ledley King
John Terry
Matthew Upson
Stephen Warnock

With Jamie Carragher in the team, you may as well give the opposition team a penalty to start the game with. Watching him peep out of Didier Drogba’s back pocket earlier in the season shows me that he just isn’t up to it in big games anymore. Drogba ran rings around him. To be honest I would have sooner taken Gary Neville, who has seen a return to great form this year.

Whilst I see Ledley King as a bit of a gamble with regard to his fitness, he is a fantastic, solid defender when he is fit. I don’t blame Capello taking him at all. However, I would have preferred to have seen him take Michael Dawson, rather than Matthew Upson. Remember he captained Nottingham Forest at the age of 19 and has had a good, steady season, helping Spurs into the top four. To be honest I don’t see what Upson has done this year to warrant his place. The inclusion of Warnock is welcome, its good to see young players getting a chance.

Midfielders
Gareth Barry
Michael Carrick
Joe Cole
Steven Gerrard
Frank Lampard
Aaron Lennon
James Milner
Shaun Wright-Phillips

Shaun Wright-Phillips has struggled to get into the City team this year, let alone the England squad. Decisions like this make me question Capello and his “picked on form” policy. What kind of form has SWP had to justify taking him to the World Cup? Don’t get me wrong he’s a good footballer, but so is his team mate Adam Johnson, who was one of the seven casualties. I would have definitely taken Johnson over Wright-Phillips. Johnson is a winger on the up while SWP seems to be very stationary at the moment in terms of his career.

I must admit I thought it was the right decision in principle not to take Walcott based on form, but I would have dropped Wright-Phillips before Walcott. Walcott does seem to be adaptable to play on the other side or even as a forward. SWP can play on either wing but looks a little lost in other positions.

Forwards
Peter Crouch
Jermain Defoe
Emile Heskey
Wayne Rooney

Defoe and Rooney are both proven goal machines, so that was always going to be a dead cert. Although I’m not a fan of Crouch, he does offer something totally different with his height, and he has an excellent goal scoring record in an England shirt. Why Darren Bent didn’t go instead of Heskey I will never know. Darren Bent managed 24 league goals this year, a career best. Heskey managed just three. That is not picking players on form.

I’m aware that Rooney plays better when joined by Heskey up front, but I firmly believe that Rooney, Crouch or Defoe would still happily score goals if Heskey wasn’t there. I just hope that he won’t regret taking Heskey as the tournament wears on…

The Verdict
All in all it just looks like Capello has tinkered with his squad rather than make decent, positive changes. I genuinely believe players like Robinson, Dawson, Johnson and Bent should have gone. To think Robinson wasn’t even included in the provisional 30 seems crazy to me. At a time when the national squad is desperate for an established keeper, either Hart or Robinson could fit the bill.

As I said at the start of this post, I don’t see this team winning the World Cup. I see them progressing through the group stages, but there’s going to be a point where they have to play the Spain’s, Argentina’s and Italy’s of this world. They had best be ready!

Just a quick post tonight! As promised earlier in the day, here is the result of the last round and the pick for tomorrows lone match!

Swindon Town (+33) v Exeter City (+17) @ 0.51 (2 pts) – Loss

This was a great disappointment as I recall I really fancied Swindon to win this match, and the stats certainly thought so. But that’s football for you! Here is the pick for tomorrows game, and once again, it involves Swindon!

Charlton Athletic (+22) v Swindon Town (+15) @ 1.04 (2 pts)

I fancy Charlton to bounce back in this 2nd leg and do the business, however this bet is for Charlton to win tomorrows match over 90 minutes, NOT to progress to the final! Let’s see how it goes.

Thanks for reading,
Adam

Just a quick post here regarding a site for you all to look at. Over at a website called PostRacing.net, a man has taken on a challenge that I think all of us punters could do with taking part in! Ron Robinson is a man who is aiming to raise £1,000,000 for horse racing related charities.

By signing up to his newsletters, you will receive his own private handicap figures each morning, for the coming days racing. This figures are completely free with exception to Saturdays, where subscribers can pay a mere £5 for the days figures. I have been a member of his group for the last couple of months and I can assure you, they are really good figures!

Please join the group and help Ron’s quest, it really is a great cause and I know he would appreciate as many people as possible to join and help him make the million! I’ve stuck the link in the “Resources” section but here it is again – www.postracing.net

Right recently I have neglected my “Footy Challenge” but this week it will be back in the form of the Football League Play-offs! There are some tasty looking semi finals to have a go at this week and my ratings for Monday’s games will be available tonight/tomorrow. I also hope to take an active part in World Cup although I will have to miss the latter stages due to a holiday in Mexico! Right I shall go and get my head down and get tomorrows picks sorted!

Thanks for reading,
Adam

Sorry about the late post! We got off to a decent start with the first round of picks, 2 wins and a loss. Unfortunately Cardiff and Sheffield Utd could only manage a 1-1 draw, preventing us from a clean sweep. Most pleasing was our small gamble paid off with Reading beating Leicester which put us nicely in profit! So here’s the results from round one:

Cardiff City (+3) v Sheffield United (-10) @ 1.02. (2 pts) – Loss
West Bromwich Albion (+24) v Coventry City (+8) @ 0.52 (2 pts) – Win
Leicester City (+15) v Reading (+23) @ 1.75 (2 pts) – Win

Total Picks: 2 Wins 1 Loss
Strike Rate: 66.67%
Profit/Loss: +4.54 pts

There is only one English league game tomorrow night so we will be restricted to only one pick. The match is Swindon Town v Exeter City, here’s what my stats have given me:

Swindon Town (+33) v Exeter City (+17) @ 0.51 (2 pts)

Let’s hope Swindon do the business and keep the good start going! I will do round three tomorrow night in preperation for Tuesday’s fixtures then post them up late Tuesday afternoon!

Thanks,
Adam.

Well over 2 months after I intended to start, here I go! All prices used in the challenge will be taken from Betfair. I know I said Stan James in the last post but I’ve changed my mind, I’ve grown as a person… I was going to call the challenge “Betfair Buggery” but decided against it.

For round one I have chosen three picks, all picked using my own footy stats system (Picks in bold). All odds AFTER commission! I’m using decimal odds as Betfair do so it saves me having to work it out!

Cardiff City (+3) v Sheffield United (-10) @ 1.02. (2 pts)
West Bromwich Albion (+24) v Coventry City (+8) @ 0.52 (2 pts)
Leicester City (+15) v Reading (+23) @ 1.75 (2 pts)

My stats seem to have thrown up an odd one with them tipping Reading to beat Leicester, but I’m willing to take a gamble and go with it. Reading have actually been in the better form in the build up to this game so I guess we’ll just have to see what happens! Will post up the results late tomorrow.

Thanks,
Adam.

After taking a bit of a sabbatical from this blog, I’ve decided to get my arse in gear and get the ball rolling again. I’m setting myself a challenge. By using this site I’m going to keep a record of my quest to make as much money as possible, and if you follow me you can make it too, or lose it, depending on how i go! I’ve chosen to use only one bookmaker to do the challenge, this will be Stan James. The reason being that I can keep a track of my profit/losses easier through one than messing about using 20 different bookies and getting myself (and people reading!) confused! The other reason I’m using Stan James is because they have a decent selection of non-league footy to choose from!

My picks will be chosen using a “points” system rather than money. I’m doing this because a) I don’t like people to know how much money I place on a bet, and b) it doesn’t pressure people taking part to use the same amounts of money as me. So, for people taking part, I want you to choose a stake for each point before we start and STICK TO THEM! I will use 1 point for a bet I’m taking a risk on, 2 points for a bet I’m confident in, and 3 points for a bet I’m very confident on. I will keep a running total of our winnings also in a points system.

Happy betting
Adam.

I was wondering how the current economic down-turn affects gamblers. Are people gambling more to try and get themselves out of problems they are in e.g. debts, mortgages and loans? I’ve always seen betting as a more profitable way of playing the lottery. By this I mean you have something like a one-in-a-million chance of winning the lottery, but say if you bet on a football match there is only going to be three possible outcomes (home win, away win or draw). OK your not going to win £14m by betting on Sunderland beating Chelsea at 12/1 from a £1 bet, but by using your betting budget wisely you can get the rewards. I’d rather get that £13 return than chuck a quid on the lottery and get fuck all back. OK its not likely that Sunderland would beat Chelsea but its a one in three chance, but its also not likely that your going to win the jackpot on the lottery. And anything can happen in football!

One thing is certain in all this, there has never been a better time to make your betting pay. Taking that extra 10 minutes looking at a game preview can make all the difference. Being fine tuned is the only way to go. Your not going to make any money whatsoever just chucking a tenner on this and a tenner on that. I wouldn’t say I’m a great bettor. I’m good but not out of this world. I study the stats and make a selection.

Also the bookmakers must be the only industry making money from the recession. Say if people are turning to gambling to make that extra bit of money, then the bookies profits must be increasing. What the bookies pay out during a football season for example, must be nothing compared to what they make. They wouldn’t be in the business if it was. Ahh well what do I know? This depression is a bit depressing isn’t it?

With just over 5 weeks to go until the Premier League fires up again, I’ve decided to look at the prices for the teams expecting to be battling it out for the title. The obvious choices will be between the “Big Four”, ie. Manchester United, Chelsea, Liverpool and Arsenal.

Personally, I think we can rule Arsenal out of the equation. I think they are just too far away from being title contenders yet. They are yet again too young and still in huge debt after building a new stadium so I can’t see them going out spending large amounts on getting experienced players in. Maybe in a couple of years they could be classed as real title contenders, but not until they either spend on experience, or until the current crop mature a bit.

Chelsea on the other hand need to lower the age of their squad. If Essien keeps fit he’s a rock in midfield. He’s a class player who can boss midfield, leaving Lampard to push up and get goals. They have enough attacking options. I know Drogba’s a twat but when he’s in the right frame of mind he’s one of the best strikers in the world, and can play up front on his own. Also with Anelka as back up, I don’t see why they would need to strengthen there. Maybe if they could shore up the defence a bit. John Terry is another tosser but you can’t say he’s a bad player. Carvalho seems a bit of a clumsy bastard at times so maybe another strong defender should be added.

Next up, Liverpool. Benitez has been told by the quarrelsome yanks that he will have to sell players to get money to spend. The problem is that I don’t think there are enough fringe players that will be able to warrant big money transfers to bring in quality. For me, Liverpool need to beef up their defensive options, mainly with full backs, and need another experienced striker. However they would need a striker that would be willing to play second fiddle to Torres.

Finally, step up the reigning champions, Man Utd. The loss of Ronaldo and Tevez will be a big blow to them, but the signing of Michael Owen on a free transfer was a shrewd bit of business by Sir Alex. If anyone can reignite his career it will be him. With world class players around him to provide service I can see him getting 15-20 goals, he managed 10 last year with Newcastle. Bringing in Antonio Valencia may not fill the void of Ronaldo, but he’s a more than capable player in the Premiership. A return for Owen Hargreaves from injury will be like a new signing. An ideal player for European games, but in the Premiership he’s proved that he can hold the ball well, and with the exit of Ronaldo, he may be the new set piece specialist.

For me this year it will be between Man Utd and Chelsea. Liverpool pushed United close last year, but they need more depth in the squad. With the lack of funds available, I can’t see that happening. Ancelotti taking over at Chelsea will breathe new life into them, and he is also a good motivator. If Essien is fit, they may be able to push United even more than Liverpool did last year. Time will tell!